中国竟疯狂抛售美国国债：奥巴马现在后悔也晚(3)

      美媒惊呼中国突然出售500亿美国国债：不要恐慌 （自媒体久久自媒体）

　　China’s holdings of US Treasurys dropped to the lowest levels in two years after China dumped $47。8 billion in paper—equal to about 3。6% of its Treasury holdings as of November—bringing its total holdings to $1。27 trillion。 Not that this should come as a shock。 Yi Gang， a deputy governor of China’s central bank， hinted at the move when he announced in late November that the country no longer benefits from increasing its foreign reserves。 （原文来自www.jj00.com）

　　在中国抛售 478亿美元后，中国持有的美债降至两年来最低水平------相当于11月份持有国债的3。6%----当时持有国债为1。27万亿。这并非是一个冲击。当央行副行长易刚11月份声明国家不再从增加外汇储备获得收益时，就暗示了会有此举。

　　Though this news is likely to stoke fears of a US bond market sell-off， it’s way too early to judge whether this is a fluke or a new PBoC strategy。 If China continues to slash its Treasury holdings， that could be grim tidings indeed for the US Treasury market， especially with the Federal Reserve also winding down its bond-buying， as BNP Paribas’s Aaron Kohli told Caijing。 (Note also that even as China and Japan offloaded US Treasury securities， overall foreign holdings of US Treasurys increased ever so slightly， thanks largely to a $56-billion Belgian splurge。)

　　尽管这个新闻可能会加剧对美债抛售的担忧，但是判断这是侥幸还是央行的新策略还为时过早。法国巴黎银行的亚伦克里告诉《财经》，如果中国继续抛售美债，这对美国债券市场确实是一个可怕的消息，尤其是美联储也在逐渐缩减购买美债。（还请注意，即使中国和..抛售美国国债，美债的总持有量还是在缓慢增加，这很大程度上归功于比利时豪买了560亿美债。）

　　But there are some reasons to doubt that this is the new normal。 For one， Yi’s remarks—implying that China will scale back its currency interventions， curbing its demand for US government debt—have the paradoxical effect of inviting more speculation on yuan appreciation。 The way this works is that the PBoC buys dollars at its desired exchange rate in order to keep the value of the yuan， which is pegged to the dollar， from rising too much。 If it stops buying dollars， there’s nothing preventing the yuan’s value from rising。

　　但也有理由怀疑这是新的常态。其一，易纲的评论意味着中国将缩减货币干预措施，抑制中国对美国国债的需求，这与更多鼓励人民币升值的猜测有相反的影响。中央银行按照预期汇率购买美国国债维持人民币的稳定，因为人民币与美元挂钩，防止人民币升高太多。如果停止购买美债，将没有任何东西来阻止人民币升值。

　　The promise of a strengthening yuan adds another layer of appeal to the already inviting returns available in wealth management products and money-market funds。 If those twin attractions pull in more “hot money，” as speculative capital is called， and if foreign direct investment and net exports continue to boom， the PBoC will have to keep buying dollars—or allow a stronger yuan to hurt exports。

　　人民币增值的承诺增加了对理财产品和货币市场基金的另一层诉求。如果这两个吸引更多的“热钱”，比如投机资本纷涌而至，并且如果外商直接投资和净出口保持持续繁荣，央行将不得不继续购买美元，或者允许人民币升值损害出口。

　　And as long as it keeps piling dollars into its reserves， the central bank has few other options than US securities。 Though it has been diversifying into Korean， Canadian and Japanese securities of late， as the Peterson Institute of International Economics’ Kevin Troutman recently pointed out， the PBoC will still be hard-pressed to find a market big and liquid enough to be a suitable alternative to US Treasurys。 To give you a sense of proportion， check out this rough approximation of Chinese foreign reserve holdings：

　　既然需要在外汇储备中纳入美元，那么除了美债外，央行几乎没有别的选择。尽管近来已经购买了韩国，加拿大，..债券使其多样化，但正如彼得森经济研究所的凯文指出的那样，央行很难找到一个足够大而透明的市场来替代美国国债。为了有个直观的感觉，看看中国持有外汇储备的比例：

　　If and when the Chinese government does finally loosen its hold on the yuan， however， the impact on US government bonds will very likely be a big one。

　　如果中国政府放开人民币，不管如何，对美国债券的影响是很大的。

　　“When China finally begins to allow the [yuan] to float more freely and thus does not have to accumulate further foreign reserves， a large， price-insensitive source of demand (and thus force for lower rates) will exit the market，” wrote PIIE’s Troutman in a recent blog post。 “Who steps in (and at what price) to provide the demand， as well as the speed and manner in which China unwinds its own unconventional monetary policy， will determine the ultimate repercussions on the global financial markets。”

　　“当中国最终允许人民币自由流通，那将不再需要累积更多的外汇储备，一种大而价值不敏感的需求（且更低效率的力量）将存在于这个市场上，”彼得森经济研究所的特劳特曼在其最新的博客中写道。“谁启动（以什么价格）提供这种需求，以及中国开展非常规货币政策的速度和方式，都将决定全球金融市场的最终反应。”